Stanford ADP data: young-worker jobs in AI-exposed roles now 19% below peers
An August 2026 update of Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen's 'Canaries in the Coal Mine' study, using ADP payroll records, finds employment of 22-25-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations is about 19% below comparable less-exposed peers, up from 15% in July 2025. The adjustment comes mainly through fewer hires rather than more separations, with no sign yet of economy-wide displacement.
Why it matters
It is the strongest evidence that AI is narrowing entry-level career paths, shaping graduate hiring, apprenticeships and education policy.
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Directly linked
Connections our researchers recorded
- DevelopmentYale Budget Lab finds no significant AI effect on US jobs or wages through Q1 20267 May 2026 · Research · USContrasts with: No broad effect versus a measurable entry-level gap in payroll data
- DevelopmentAnthropic 'observed exposure' study finds no jobless rise but fewer young hires5 Mar 2026 · Research · USContrasts with: Both find a young-worker hiring squeeze, measured from usage data versus payroll data
What led here
Earlier developments on the same thread
- DevelopmentChallenger: AI is top stated reason for US job cuts for fifth month running6 Aug 2026 · Report · US
- DevelopmentIceland gives teachers nationwide access to Claude in national AI pilot4 Nov 2025 · Deal · IS
- DevelopmentAmazon cuts about 14,000 corporate roles, citing the pace of AI change28 Oct 2025 · Statement · US
- DevelopmentUS executive order makes AI literacy a K-12 and workforce priority23 Apr 2025 · Policy · US
What happened next
Later developments on the same thread
- DevelopmentNY Fed survey: AI adoption jumps but only 4% of service firms cut jobs over it1 Sep 2026 · Research · US-NY
- DevelopmentCalifornia bans AI-only firing and requires notice of AI-driven mass layoffs30 Sep 2026 · Rule change · US-CA
Same story elsewhere
What other countries and bodies did on this
- DevelopmentIMF: new AI-linked skills lift wages but widen inequality and hit young workers14 Jan 2026 · Research · INTL
- DevelopmentEU pushes AI Act duties for hiring and workplace AI back to December 20278 Jul 2026 · Rule change · EU
- DevelopmentILO refined index: one in four jobs worldwide exposed to generative AI20 May 2025 · Research · INTL
- DevelopmentChina's education ministry orders AI teaching across all school and university levels10 Apr 2026 · Programme · CN
Rules in play
Laws and guidance this touches
- RuleColorado AI Act (SB 24-205)US-CO · Superseded · 17 May 2024
- RuleCCPA ADMT regulationsUS-CA · Partly in force · 22 Sep 2025
- RuleSB 26-189 (Colorado ADMT law)US-CO · Enacted, not yet in force · 14 May 2026
- RuleNYC Local Law 144US-NY · In force · 5 Jul 2023
- RuleHB 3773US-IL · In force · 1 Jan 2026
Threads by topic: Jobs and the workforce Hiring algorithms Education