NY Fed survey: AI adoption jumps but only 4% of service firms cut jobs over it
New York Fed regional surveys show AI use among service firms rose from 40% in 2025 to 61% in 2026 and among manufacturers from 26% to 51%. Among AI-using firms, only 4% of service firms and no manufacturers reported AI-driven layoffs; about 15% of service firms slowed hiring, 13% hired more, and retraining was the most common workforce response.
Why it matters
Firm-level data suggests AI is reshaping hiring plans more than headcount, cautioning against reading layoff announcements as a measure of AI's impact.
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Connections our researchers recorded
- DevelopmentChallenger: AI is top stated reason for US job cuts for fifth month running6 Aug 2026 · Report · USContrasts with: Survey finds few AI-driven layoffs while announcements increasingly cite AI
What led here
Earlier developments on the same thread
- DevelopmentStanford ADP data: young-worker jobs in AI-exposed roles now 19% below peers12 Aug 2026 · Research · US
- DevelopmentYale Budget Lab finds no significant AI effect on US jobs or wages through Q1 20267 May 2026 · Research · US
- DevelopmentAnthropic 'observed exposure' study finds no jobless rise but fewer young hires5 Mar 2026 · Research · US
- DevelopmentAmazon cuts about 14,000 corporate roles, citing the pace of AI change28 Oct 2025 · Statement · US
Same story elsewhere
What other countries and bodies did on this
- DevelopmentCalifornia bans AI-only firing and requires notice of AI-driven mass layoffs30 Sep 2026 · Rule change · US-CA
- DevelopmentEU pushes AI Act duties for hiring and workplace AI back to December 20278 Jul 2026 · Rule change · EU
- DevelopmentIMF: new AI-linked skills lift wages but widen inequality and hit young workers14 Jan 2026 · Research · INTL
- DevelopmentILO refined index: one in four jobs worldwide exposed to generative AI20 May 2025 · Research · INTL
Rules in play
Laws and guidance this touches
- RuleNYC Local Law 144US-NY · In force · 5 Jul 2023
- RuleAlgorithm Recommendation ProvisionsCN · In force · 31 Dec 2021
- RuleColorado AI Act (SB 24-205)US-CO · Superseded · 17 May 2024
- RuleHB 3773US-IL · In force · 1 Jan 2026
Threads by topic: Jobs and the workforce Hiring algorithms