From diffusion rule to chip deals
How did US AI-chip export policy shift from global tiers to negotiated, deal-by-deal access, and how did China push back?
Washington dropped its tiered AI Diffusion Rule in 2025 and replaced it with country deals, revenue-linked China licences and approved-entity lists. Beijing answered with security and antitrust pressure on NVIDIA, rare-earth leverage and a domestic chip push, while smuggling cases show the leaks in between.
- US scraps AI Diffusion Rule and warns against using Huawei Ascend chips
The starting point: the global tier system is scrapped and Huawei Ascend chips are flagged.
- Stargate UAE: 1GW OpenAI cluster planned in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW due in 2026
Chip access becomes part of a bilateral investment deal with the UAE.
- China's internet regulator summons NVIDIA over alleged security risks in H20 chips
Beijing questions the security of the US chips Washington lets it buy.
- China's market regulator finds preliminary NVIDIA antitrust breach over Mellanox deal
Antitrust becomes a second lever over NVIDIA during trade talks.
- China adds extraterritorial rare-earth export controls, then pauses them to Nov 2026
China shows its own export-control leverage, then pauses it to November 2026.
- Rule · In forceUSBIS H200 case-by-case rule
The rule that lets H200-class chips go to China case by case, with conditions.
- NVIDIA restarts H200 production after Chinese orders and first US licence
Sales resume only once both governments approve.
- US charges Supermicro co-founder over alleged $2.5bn Nvidia-server diversion to China
Enforcement against the grey market for newer chips.
- US moves UAE into top export tier, opening licence-free AI chips to approved users
The approved-entity template for trusted partners is written into the rules.
Where this line could go next
Connected developments not on this line
- DevelopmentUS opens case-by-case H200 licences for China and adds 25% tariff on such chips15 Jan 2026 · Rule change · US, CN
- DevelopmentOpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX launch $500bn Stargate data-centre venture21 Jan 2025 · Deal · US
- DevelopmentHuawei sets yearly Ascend AI-chip roadmap and 8,192-chip Atlas 950 SuperPoD18 Sep 2025 · Launch · CN
- DevelopmentUS export-control order forces global shutdown of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 512 Jun 2026 · Enforcement or ruling · US
- DevelopmentOpenAI signs 6GW AMD GPU deal and gets warrant for up to 160m AMD shares6 Oct 2025 · Deal · US
- DevelopmentKansas City Fed's Schmid asks whether the AI ecosystem is becoming too big to fail25 Sep 2026 · Statement · US