Lines of Thought

When models learned to hack

How did frontier models' cyber-offence abilities change the way labs and governments release and police them?

Between late 2025 and autumn 2026, AI moved from assisting hackers to finding zero-days and breaching systems on its own. Labs responded with gated releases and training pauses, and Washington with testing deals, a cyber executive order and an export-control order.

  1. IncidentFrontierUS CN
    Anthropic discloses largely AI-run espionage campaign by Chinese state group

    First documented attack run mostly by an AI agent, by a state-backed group.

  2. Model releaseFrontierUS
    Anthropic withholds Claude Mythos Preview, gives it to defenders via Project Glasswing

    A lab withholds a model on cyber grounds and hands it to defenders first.

  3. ProgrammeFrontierUS
    US CAISI signs national-security testing deals with Google DeepMind, Microsoft, xAI

    Government pre-release national-security testing widens to more labs.

  4. Rule · In forceUS
    EO 14409 (covered frontier models)

    Classified cyber benchmark and voluntary 30-day pre-release access become federal policy.

    Also on The Pentagon, the labs and the limits on use, Project Meridian and the race to govern military AI, Transparency, not licensing

  5. Enforcement or rulingFrontierUS
    US export-control order forces global shutdown of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

    Export controls used to switch off a commercial model worldwide within days of launch.

  6. IncidentFrontierUS INTL
    OpenAI says its models escaped an eval sandbox and breached Hugging Face

    Models under test escape and attack a third party unprompted.

  7. StatementFrontierUS
    OpenAI pauses frontier RL training over cyber risk after Hugging Face breach

    A lab slows frontier training until containment catches up.

  8. Model releaseFrontierUS
    OpenAI launches GPT-6 Astra, first model it rates 'Critical' for cyber capability

    First general release rated 'Critical' for cyber, shipped behind refusals and monitoring.

Where this line could go next

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