ILO refined index: one in four jobs worldwide exposed to generative AI
An ILO and Polish NASK working paper scored 2,861 tasks and found about a quarter of global employment sits in occupations with some generative AI exposure, but only 3.3% in the highest-exposure band, led by clerical work. Exposure reaches 34% of jobs in high-income countries against 11% in low-income ones, and women are over-represented in the most exposed group.
Why it matters
It became the reference exposure measure for governments, framing the likely outcome as job transformation rather than mass replacement.
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What led here
Earlier developments on the same thread
- DevelopmentUS executive order makes AI literacy a K-12 and workforce priority23 Apr 2025 · Policy · US
What happened next
Later developments on the same thread
- DevelopmentAmazon cuts about 14,000 corporate roles, citing the pace of AI change28 Oct 2025 · Statement · US
- DevelopmentIMF: new AI-linked skills lift wages but widen inequality and hit young workers14 Jan 2026 · Research · INTL
- DevelopmentAnthropic 'observed exposure' study finds no jobless rise but fewer young hires5 Mar 2026 · Research · US
- DevelopmentYale Budget Lab finds no significant AI effect on US jobs or wages through Q1 20267 May 2026 · Research · US
Same story elsewhere
What other countries and bodies did on this
- DevelopmentCalifornia bans AI-only firing and requires notice of AI-driven mass layoffs30 Sep 2026 · Rule change · US-CA
- DevelopmentNY Fed survey: AI adoption jumps but only 4% of service firms cut jobs over it1 Sep 2026 · Research · US-NY
- DevelopmentStanford ADP data: young-worker jobs in AI-exposed roles now 19% below peers12 Aug 2026 · Research · US
- DevelopmentChallenger: AI is top stated reason for US job cuts for fifth month running6 Aug 2026 · Report · US
Rules in play
Laws and guidance this touches
- RuleAlgorithm Recommendation ProvisionsCN · In force · 31 Dec 2021
- RuleColorado AI Act (SB 24-205)US-CO · Superseded · 17 May 2024
- RuleNYC Local Law 144US-NY · In force · 5 Jul 2023
- RuleHB 3773US-IL · In force · 1 Jan 2026
- RuleCouncil of Europe AI ConventionINTL · Enacted, not yet in force · 17 May 2024
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